Economy
The latest US durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures suggest that hard and soft data are converging, but stocks remain at risk. After months of rising prints, new orders for manufactured goods sank by 6.3% in April compared to the previous…
The upward trend in global food prices suggests that food inflation risks re-accelerating in the US. Historically, US food inflation lags the United Nations’ global food price index by about nine months. The annual growth in global food prices has been…
The latest political developments in Argentina increase the odds of further liberalizing reforms and solidify the economy’s structural upside. First, the libertarian governing party came out on top in Buenos Aires’ legislative elections. While municipal…
Producer prices in Spain surprised to the downside, foreshadowing a relapse in Euro Area inflation and cementing the ECB’s dovish stance. The Spanish PPI index fell to 1.9% in April, continuing the disinflation trend from the last period while recording the…
According to our fixed income strategists, the main drivers of rising global yields have been widening bond/OIS spreads and term premiums. Wider government bond/OIS spreads reflect increasing government bond supply (net of central bank purchases) among…
The gold-to-oil price ratio seems tactically overextended, but global macro drivers suggest it will rise further. The gold bull run is still relatively young and not yet stretched compared to rallies from the past 50 years. Importantly, ongoing…
We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months.
Last Friday, President Trump announced new 50% tariffs on imported goods from the European Union (EU), effective June 1st, and threatened US company Apple with 25% tariffs unless it made iPhones in the US. Global stock markets reacted negatively to the news,…
The rebound in UK retail sales and consumer confidence surprised to the upside, and suggests that the re-acceleration in inflation observed earlier this week may not be transitory. UK retail sales rose 1.2% m/m in April from 0.1% m/m, significantly…
President Trump’s signature bill is surprising to the upside with budget deficits, as predicted by our Geopolitical Strategists. Some form of the bill is guaranteed to pass, no matter how many tries it takes. The bill will cut taxes more than…