Economy
Our Global Fixed Income strategists recommend maintaining an underweight allocation to corporate credit versus government bonds in global fixed income portfolios. Within corporates, they are neutral on the US, UK, Japan, and Australia, and underweight on…
The March ISM Manufacturing adds to the recent stagflationary impulse, but markets remain focused on the growth drag, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. The headline index fell more than expected to 49.0 from 50.3, with new orders and employment…
Labor market data continues to cool, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and above-benchmark duration stance. February job openings fell to 7.6m, below expectations. Declining quits and rising layoffs signal that labor market slack is increasing.…
Eurozone inflation is cooling steadily, supporting our tactical overweight in German bunds versus European equities and increasing the odds of an April ECB cut. Headline HICP eased to 2.2% y/y in March from 2.3%, while core came in cooler than expected at…
April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade barriers will guide the next phase of US trade policy. While the…
Markets are responding to the growth drag of stagflation, not the inflation impulse, reinforcing our defensive stance. Despite rising short-term inflation pressures in the US, risk assets and bond yields continue to move together, with the stock–bond yield…
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists remain structurally positive but cyclically underweight on Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds. While these funds have delivered consistent alpha and valuable diversification, current market conditions offer more…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.
This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.
Japan’s inflation pulse remains firm, reinforcing our long JPY stance and cautious view on JGBs. Tokyo CPI for March surprised to the upside, with headline inflation slightly up at 2.9% y/y and “core core” accelerating above the BoJ’s target to 2.2% from…