Economy
The post-COVID US recovery was different from previous cycles. Despite an ebullient economy, US consumers and firms have just not been feeling it, as reflected by the depressed signals from so-called soft, survey-based indicators. The main reason behind this…
Our Global Investment Strategy team released their 2025 outlook, adopting the unique perspective of time-travelers reporting from January 2, 2026. They foresee a challenging 2025, with the global economy slowing sharply and the NBER pinning the start date…
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.
Trump's policies aim to support domestic producers and will be pro-growth and inflationary, at least initially. This environment is supportive of equities. Earnings will likely be strong, but elevated valuations make equities prone to a correction. Earnings growth broadening will translate into performance broadening – the S&P 493, Cyclicals, Value, Small and Mid are likely to outperform.
Our US equity strategists just published their annual outlook, where they discuss the environment and rotation they foresee in 2025, which is more bullish than our House View. Our colleagues see Trump 2.0 policies driving economic growth and…
The November CPI came in line with expectations, accelerating to 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) from 0.2% (2.6% y/y) in October. Core also printed at 0.3% m/m, the same as October and remaining at 3.3% y/y. The acceleration was mainly driven by food and used cars. …
The USD has steamrolled both DM and EM currencies since the US election. Among the victims was the Chinese yuan, with USDCNY strengthening towards 7.3, a multi-year resistance level, from 7.11 on the day of the election. The CNY weakened further Wednesday…
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.25%, a move predicted by economists and roughly priced in. The consecutive supersized cut brings the policy rate in the upper end of the 2.25%-to-3.25% range the BoC considers as neutral. With inflation…
We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.
- Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
- Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
- China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate.
- Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.