Economy

China’s November trade balance increased to CNY 692.8 bln on the back of slowing-but-still-growing exports (down to 5.8% y/y from 11.2% in October), and a worsening imports contraction (-4.7% y/y vs. -3.7% in October). In Japan, growth in machine tools orders…

Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025.   First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026. This stimulus will likely…

The November NFIB Small Business Optimism index beat expectations, jumping to 101.7 from 93.7 in October. Outside of inventory satisfaction, which was flat, all index subcomponents increased, led by measures of expectations. The outlook for general business…

Chinese deflationary pressures intensified in November, with CPI ticking down to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% in October. Producer prices deflation eased, with prices falling 2.5% y/y, less than -2.9% y/y a month prior. The weak data prompted a Politburo statement…

The December Sentix Economic Index for the Euro Area missed expectations, declining to -17.5 vs. -12.8 in November. Both the current situation and expectations components declined.  As the first sentiment indicator for December, the Sentix confirms…

In the final installment of their “PIGS Have Wings” special series, our European investment strategists took a deep dive into the Spanish economy and financial assets.  Spain outperformed most developed markets since 2022, with strong gains in both…

The US November jobs report was mixed. Payrolls rose by 227k vs. an upwardly revised 36k in October, leaving the 3-month moving average at 173k. The unemployment and underemployment rates however rose 0.1% to 4.2% and 7.8%, respectively. The labor force…

Our Counterpoint strategists published their 2025 outlook; they see major market movements for the year ahead hinging on Japan. Japan remains the cornerstone of global liquidity, with rising Japanese real yields posing a key risk. Monitoring Japanese real…

The US Treasury yield curve recently bull flattened, with the 2-year/10-year segment almost completely flat. Meanwhile, the breakeven inflation curve has re-inverted, with 2-year breakeven inflation rate now above the 10-year maturity by about 25 basis…

German factory orders decreased less than expected in October, falling 1.5% m/m after rising 7.2% in September. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders rose 0.1%, after rising 2.7% a month prior. Despite the…