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Emerging Markets

Is The Labor Market Slowdown For Real?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Korea: A Deflationary Shock Ahead

A deflationary shock from shrinking exports will ripple throughout the Korean economy. We are downgrading the KOSPI from overweight to neutral and reiterating a long position in 10-year domestic bonds, currency unhedged.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan, Ziyuan Huang
US Tariffs On India: The Last Straw?

A high US tariff and the lingering uncertainties on the US-India trade deal will hurt investors sentiment. This and contracting corporate profits will push share prices lower. Stay underweight Indian stocks.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
MacroQuant Model Update: MacroQuant Flashing Amber (But Not Yet Red)

MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
Brazil: The Hawks Are Still Flying
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy due to unanchored inflation…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
South Africa Cuts Rates, More Easing Likely As Growth Slows
The SARB cut rates by 25 bps to 7.00%; our EM strategists expect further easing and recommends short ZAR exposure. Real interest rates remain elevated, and high borrowing costs are intensifying debt sustainability concerns, with 10-year yields far above…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Turkey: An Opportunity In Domestic Bonds

Thanks to the tight monetary and fiscal policies so far, inflation and growth are heading lower in Turkey. Buy 2-year local currency bonds, currency unhedged. Also, upgrade Turkey's domestic bonds from neutral to overweight and stocks from underweight to neutral within their respective EM portfolios.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Brazil: Not Worth The Risk
BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists continue to underweight Brazilian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit, and initiated a receiver position in 2-year swap rates. Brazil’s public debt remains on an unsustainable trajectory, with neither current policy…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Dilution: The Silent Drag On Equity Returns (Part 2)
BCA’s Emerging Markets strategists remain negative on EM stocks in absolute terms but recommend a neutral weighting within global equity portfolios. Economic growth does not reliably translate into earnings per share or shareholder returns, with dilution (net…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Brazil: Not Worth The Risk

A potential right-wing government in 2027 will not stabilize the trajectory of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Unsustainable public debt, a large current account deficit, and a sharp growth slowdown will lead Brazilian markets to underperform EM. Yet, to benefit from a quickly decelerating economy, we recommend receiving 2-year swap rates.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana

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