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Financial Markets

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Groundhog Day
Special Report

We do not believe that NYCB is a canary in the coal mine for a new round of bank distress. The MidCap 400 Regional Bank Index’s subsequent 10% decline looks to us like a juicy opportunity for stockpickers who can separate the wheat from the chaff. Our Special Report is meant to assist them with their initial winnowing.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Style Chart Pack: The Magnificent Five

The soft landing and rate cuts narrative is being priced out, and the S&P 500 is overvalued and getting overbought. The Magnificent Seven are about to get a new moniker on the back of performance dispersion. However, without the cohort, S&P 500 earnings would have been even deeper in the red.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
The S&P500 During Fed Rate Cuts
In this Insight our Equity Analyzer team explores how the S&P 500 behaves when the Fed Funds Target Rate drops by 25bps – 150bps within a single year. The current dot plot is signaling 75bps of cuts by the end of the year, the mid-point of the range.…
Daily Insights
MacroQuant: Tactically Neutral On Equities
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant 2.0 model continues to recommend that investors maintain a benchmark allocation to equities over a 1-to-3 month horizon. At the end of January, MacroQuant’s US equity module, Stock Coach, is…
Daily Insights
January In Review
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with the investable and domestic…
Daily Insights
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MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Cyclicals Versus Defensives Following The Fed’s First Rate Cut
Investors are likely to pay close attention to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday for clues about the likely timing of the first rate cut. For now, markets are assigning slightly higher odds to the central bank standing pat in March – a change from a month…
Daily Insights
Swedish Indicators Are Still Optimistic
Over the past few months, we have been highlighting that several indicators are pointing to an industrial recovery in Europe. Notably, Swedish indicators were a cause for optimism. The Swedish PMI’s new orders-to-inventories ratio has rebounded sharply over…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 Margins: Race To The Bottom - Unit Labor Costs vs Pricing Power
S&P 500 operating margins have been in a downdraft for nearly two years – but the consensus is still penciling in expansion for 2024. How likely is that? Our US Equity Strategy colleagues have addressed this question in their recent “Marginally Better…
Daily Insights

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