Fixed Income
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to households and some initiatives to lift property…
This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE…
The bond market had long anticipated a Trump 2.0 administration, but bond yields still spiked as a Trump victory materialized. What’s the path ahead for US rates? Our US bond strategists believe 10-year yields can go up further in the near-term, but will…
The post-COVID inflation pushed bond yields higher, turning the stock-bond yield correlation negative and taking away bonds’ hedging properties. The relationship normalized this summer as economic data surprised negatively, pushing equities and yields lower.…
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis. Nonfarm payrolls were flat with…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures.…
The October ISM Manufacturing missed expectations, decreasing to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. The Prices Paid component jumped, rising to 54.8 from 48.3 the month prior. New Orders showed a small upside surprise at 47.1, up 1 point on the month, pushing the…