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Fixed Income

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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Australian CPI Comes In Hot
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual components diverged. Food and non-alcoholic…
Daily Insights
India: Avoid Stocks, Buy Bonds
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will largely continue the structural…
Daily Insights
The ECB Will Be More Dovish Than The BoE
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025. The UK’s monetary policy remains…
Daily Insights
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China’s Credit Impulse Loses Its Mojo

The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
German IFO Surprises To Downside
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest amelioration to 89.6.  The IFO…
Daily Insights
Canadian Inflation Surprises To The Upside
Canada’s headline inflation rate for May surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The 0.6% month-on-month print and 2.9% year-on-year increase came in above expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Both measures increased from April. Core inflation…
Daily Insights
Is Emerging Market Debt Still As Cyclical As It Was In The Past?
Emerging market debt is typically thought of as a cyclical asset. When risk assets sell off and the dollar rises, this asset class has historically suffered. However, there are some signs that the risk-on nature of EM debt has begun to change. In a recent…
Daily Insights
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The BoE Is Turning Cautiously Dovish

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Not Dark Yet

Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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