Global
Economic data released over the holiday period extended recent trends, reflecting a softening global economy with resilient US growth, and an ailing manufacturing sector. The December global manufacturing PMI declined to 49.6 after reaching the 50 level…
Our Global Investment Strategy team released their 2025 outlook, adopting the unique perspective of time-travelers reporting from January 2, 2026. They foresee a challenging 2025, with the global economy slowing sharply and the NBER pinning the start date…
- Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
- Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.
- China will retaliate against Trump and stimulate its domestic economy, while pursuing stronger trade ties with other countries. Europe will also retaliate.
- Geopolitical risk will shift from Ukraine-Russia to Israel-Iran, where the conflict will continue to escalate until a crisis point is reached within 2025.
Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026. This stimulus will likely…
After more than 10 years of civil war, Bashar Al-Assad’s rule came to an abrupt end when rebels captured Damascus. Syria might not be a significant country in economic or financial terms, but it is part of the Middle Eastern geopolitical balance. …
OPEC+ extended its production cuts for the third time, and lengthened the period over which it plans to bring spare capacity back online. Oil prices continue to trade near the bottom of their trading range despite the announcement. The decision aims to…
Our GeoMacro Strategy service published their 2025 outlook, and they see three peaks shaping the year: Peak fiscal, peak-deglobalization, and peak geopolitical risk. In 2024, our colleagues’ bullish economic outlook proved accurate in the first half, while…
South Korea is undergoing political turmoil, with President Yoon attempting to declare martial law. The situation is fluid and can change quickly, but there are a few investment takeaways. As we pointed a few weeks back, BCA expects geopolitical tensions…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report and foresee a change of trend for 2025. “Thin is back in” for government budgets, growth, and valuations. The post-COVID recovery was marked by government…
The November ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations, increasing to 48.4 from 46.5 in October. The improvement was partly driven by the new orders component, which increased to 50.4 from 47.1. Price pressures moderated. The underlying details of…