Global
Japanese core machinery orders decreased by 1.9% in August and dropped 3.4% year-over-year, missing expectations for modest growth. This decline reversed July’s improvement, when machinery orders grew at an 8.7% annual pace. Japanese core machinery orders…
While recent cross-asset developments have sent a risk-on signal, with equities and bond yields both higher, the commodity complex has recently been sending a more somber message. “Dr. Copper” is a bellwether for the global economy given its industrial…
This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.
Consumer credit growth slowed in August, rising by USD 8.9 bn (to USD 5,097.6 bn outstanding) from USD 26.6 bn, disappointing expectations of a USD 12 bn monthly increase. Notably, revolving credit (which includes credit cards) declined by USD 1.4 bn over the…
Regular readers are familiar with our expectations for a global recession over the cyclical investment timeframe. A global downturn is overwhelmingly bearish for oil demand. The supply side, on the other hand, is simultaneously facing the threat of supply…
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) provided no insights Tuesday on the size or nature of the fiscal stimulus Beijing promised in late September. The key takeaway of the authorities' first briefing following a weeklong national holiday…
The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election.
German factory orders contracted by a larger-than-anticipated 5.8% m/m (3.9% y/y) in August, from a 3.9% expansion (4.6% y/y). Domestically, Germany is constitutionally bound to maintain a balanced budget. The emergency pandemic funds disbursed in 2020 are…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher, from 101.6 to 105.0. …
The dollar had erased all of its 2024 gains going into the fall, as markets prepared for Fed rate cuts. After a nearly 6% drawdown over the spring and summer, last week’s DXY rally brought the dollar back into the black YTD. Can these gains continue now…