Global
Utilities have had a stellar run since February with the MSCI ACW Utilities index outperforming the MSCI ACW by nearly nine percentage points. Despite being a defensive sector, Utilities’ performance this year has been comparable to that of top performing…
The long-term winners from the generative-AI gold rush are unlikely to be the ‘picks and shovels’ stock Nvidia or the overvalued US superstars of Web 2.0. We discuss the structural investment implications. Plus: time to go tactically overweight global consumer discretionary (RXI).
The risk-on soft-landing narrative dominated markets in May, with both equities and bonds rallying throughout the month. Meanwhile, the counter-cyclical US dollar slumped, and the cyclical euro appreciated against the greenback. Regionally, US assets…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the oil demand forecasts from the IEA, EIA, and OPEC are too optimistic. The IEA, EIA, and OPEC all anticipate oil demand growth to slow this year following a robust post-pandemic…
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
In this report, we gauge the outlook for the dollar given client visits in Africa.
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump’s conviction will not be a game changer in the upcoming Presidential election. President Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges by a 12-person jury in a New York state court on May 30 for…
Copper prices have returned a whopping 25.6% YTD, briefly breaking above USD 5 earlier this month. The red metal accounts for a large share of industrial metals indices and it is being buoyed by the same late-cycle dynamics as they are. Copper is deriving…
The greenback typically moves in the opposite direction of global growth. The US economy is indeed more highly geared towards services than manufacturing, compared with the rest of the world. Therefore, when global growth reaccelerates, capital typically…
The US manufacturing cycle has followed a surprisingly stable pattern for over seven decades. History suggests that this cycle tends to last for about 36 months, with a down leg spanning 18 months, followed by an up leg approximately spanning another 18…