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Sweden Is The First In Line For A Global Manufacturing Rebound
Sweden’s preliminary Flash GDP data, which is subject to revisions, points a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter and 2.4% year-over-year contraction. However, this report could potentially constitute the trough in the country’s economic slowdown. Indeed, Sweden’s…
Daily Insights
Mind The Gaps

Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Beware Geopolitical Risk
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should stay overweight low-beta assets. Geopolitical risk is likely to stay elevated in Asia Pacific in the coming months. Mainland China faces debt-deflation, poor governance, and a…
Daily Insights
China’s Engine Is Failing, And The World Economy Is Losing Altitude

China has generated 41 percent of the world’s economic growth through the past ten years, al-most double the 22 percent contribution from the US. Now that the Chinese growth engine is failing, we explain why it is arithmetically impossible for world growth to maintain the altitude of the past few decades. And we discuss an important investment implication.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Heed Maersk’s Warning?
On Friday, shipping giant Maersk delivered a pessimistic outlook for global trade. Although the company raised its 2023 earnings forecast, the upgrade comes on the back of a better-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year. Ebitda fell by 72%…
Daily Insights
Is the Relative Manufacturing/Services Weakness Reversing?
The first half of the year was characterized by a two-speed economy. Manufacturing bore the brunt of the weakness while the services sector remained resilient. However, the global composite PMI corroborates the signal from DM flash PMIs that this dynamic is…
Daily Insights
A Russian Oil Embargo?
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, Russia is likely to cut oil production to pressure the West as a part of its war effort. This cut would push oil prices to above $90/bbl, in line with the team’s…
Daily Insights
A Seasonal Illusion Threatens Goldilocks Markets

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Global Manufacturing: A Positive Signal From Sweden
The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new orders, and new export orders.…
Daily Insights
July In Review
The performance of global financial markets continued to improve in July, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns for the second consecutive month. Asian markets led this dynamic with Chinese investable stocks…
Daily Insights

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