Global

This week’s report looks at the banking crisis within the context of shrinking dollar liquidity and implication for FX markets.

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

This week’s <i>Special Report</i>, written by Miroslav Aradski, highlights the worrisome deterioration in health trends in the US, which began before the pandemic. Over the long haul, this could weigh on labor supply and productivity, put upward pressure on bond yields, and hurt equity multiples.

The combination of collapsing energy inflation and cooling wage inflation means that euro area core inflation will slump later this year. We discuss the consequences.

China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.

The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.