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Labor Market

A Downward Bias In US Nonfarm Payroll Revisions
For the past year, relatively large downward revisions have been key features of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls reports. Friday’s release was no exception. Although it showed the magnitude of job gains beat expectations in February, estimates for December…
Daily Insights
Japan: Q4 GDP Expansion Raises Odds Of BoJ Hike
Japanese equities and government bonds sold off on Monday and the yen strengthened following the release of the revised Q4 GDP report showing the economy expanded by an annualized 0.4% q/q in Q4 2023 versus earlier estimates of a 0.4% contraction. A…
Daily Insights
ECB: On Track For A June Rate Cut
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to acknowledge that the European economy is soft…
Daily Insights
US Unemployment Rate Climbs To 2-Year High
The US employment situation report sent a mixed signal on Friday. While total nonfarm payrolls rose by 275 thousand jobs in February, exceeding the 200 thousand expected, the previous two months’ numbers were revised lower by 167 thousand jobs (see Indicator…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 EPS And Sales Growth Forecasts Are Too Optimistic
According to Factset, analysts are forecasting S&P 500 earnings and revenues to grow by 11.0% y/y and 5.0% y/y respectively in 2024 (an acceleration from 0.9% and 2.8% in 2023). Information technology and communications services (broadly-defined tech) are…
Daily Insights
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Stay The Course On Treasury Positioning

We update the indicators in our duration checklist following this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Biden’s Still Alive, But Can He Kick?

Democrats are still slightly favored for reelection as the incumbent party is presiding over a growing economy. However, Biden’s strong showing in the primary election is not lifting his popular approval yet, and that is a worrying sign. Policy uncertainty should rise sharply, which is marginally negative for the stock market.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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The “Gratuitous” 1994 Fed Tightening Cycle Is A Bad Analogue For Today

Many investors have cited the 1994 tightening cycle as an example of how the Fed managed to raise rates without triggering a recession. However, the unemployment rate was 6.5% in early 1994, which meant that inflation was less of a risk than it is today. Productivity growth also accelerated starting in the mid-1990s. While something similar may happen again thanks to AI, so far this is not visible in the aggregate productivity data.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US January JOLTS Report: Persistent Resilience
The US January JOLTS data released yesterday was in line with expectations, with job openings clocking in at 8.86 million versus a downwardly-revised 8.89 million in December. Importantly, US job openings are likely to continue trending lower in February…
Daily Insights
A Closer Look At February's US Services PMI
The US ISM Services PMI declined slightly to 52.6 in February, just below expectations of 53. Overall, the service sector continues to expand, however, the recent ISM suggests that growth is slowing down. In fact, most of the components of the ISM…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics