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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The ECB Will Be More Dovish Than The BoE
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025. The UK’s monetary policy remains…
Daily Insights
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The BoE Is Turning Cautiously Dovish

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Central Bank Divergences Create Some FX Trading Opportunities

We look at the implications a various European central bank meetings this week, for currency strategy.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Can The BoE Afford To Cut Rates In August?
In a widely expected move, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in June. Although MPC members voted seven-to-two in favor of not cutting rates, a tweak in communication noting that the decision was “finely balanced”, hinted at the…
Daily Insights
UK Inflation Is Still Sticky
On the surface, UK inflation appears to be on the right track. The May CPI release came in broadly within expectations. Headline inflation eased from 2.3%y/y to 2.0%y/y – directly on the BoE’s target for the first time since July 2021. Core CPI (excluding…
Daily Insights
UK Inflation Expectations Are Still Well Anchored
The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle growth reacceleration. The UK…
Daily Insights
The Consumption Outlook Outside Of The US
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also played a role. Most notably, the…
Daily Insights
Sticky Wages Complicate the BoE's Task
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains elevated. The 3-month measure of…
Daily Insights
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Where To Find Value In DM Government Bonds
Special Report

In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds within a DM ex-US allocation.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Jonathan LaBerge

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