UK

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.

A surprisingly dovish outcome from this week's FOMC meeting has led to broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The monetary policy divergence supporting the dollar may have peaked.

Most of the economic arguments in favor of the U.K. leaving the EU do not carry much weight, as we discuss in this collaboration between BCA's <i>Geopolitical Strategy</i> and <i>European Investment Strategy</i>. However, the probability is a coin toss - much higher than investors tend to think. We review the geopolitical and investment implications of the "Leave" and "Remain" scenarios.

This <i>Special Report</i> reviews all of our active recommendations, including our over/underweight country and asset allocation positions, as well as our current tactical trades.

The euro stopped weakening in March 2015, which coincided with the ECB starting its asset purchases. Since then, the ECB's incremental policies have been unable to push the euro lower. The price action speaks to the resilience of the currency and indicates that a lot of bad news has been discounted.

Cutting through the hype that will surround policy initiatives today, the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place. We explain why, and what it means for investors.

Over the coming two weeks, the G3 central banks will be holding key policy meetings that could prove instrumental in setting major FX trends for the next several months. What can currency traders expect?

For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity overweight, EM and Canada also received some allocation. The U.S. and New Zealand were slightly downgraded. In the fixed-income space, the model is sticking with Italy and Spain.