Latest from BCA Research

The US dollar will become a pro-cyclical currency going forward. This regime shift would upend financial market correlations, and most investment portfolios are not positioned for it. A great deal of money is made or lost during regime changes -…

Bitcoin miners are transitioning from a pure crypto play to AI infrastructure landlords, offering investors exposure to both a crypto recovery and the surge in secular power demand driven by the AI capex buildout.

We stick to the view that geopolitical risk has peaked. The US and Iran tensions will increase oil prices, but below a level that will matter for the market. With global liquidity ample, private sector leverage low, and inflation peaking, bears…

As a short-term (0-3 months) trade, go long an equal-weighted basket of Chinese Investable and A-shares / short the KOSPI. This is a bet on mean reversion. We do not recommend that medium- and long-term investors implement this strategy.

June’s low CPI reading rules out a July rate hike, but September is still on the table. 

We wish all our French clients Bonne Fête Nationale! The rest of the world knows the holiday by its other name, Bastille Day. It is fitting, therefore, that we publish today GeoMacro Beta report on the coming political…

History suggests that the equity impact of rate moves depends heavily on the stock/bond correlation regime, and today’s positive correlation regime leaves the bond market as the main risk to equity multiples.

The US and Iran have engaged in a dramatic increase in kinetic activity over the past several days. It all appears to have started on July 6-7, when Iran allegedly attacked several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, vessels that were using the US-…

We continue to overweight Mexican stocks, local bonds, sovereign credit, and currency within their respective EM portfolios. Also, stay long Mexican equities / short the S&P500.

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.