Insights
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Webcast Replay
Juan discussed:
- What are the consequences of the current oil shock to the global economy?
- How will policy makers respond to this shock?
- What indicators should investors be looking for a resolution?
- What indicators should investors look for to get more positive on equities?
- What are the long term consequences of the war?
Webcast Replay
BCA美国政治与地缘政治副主编马语书的中文网络直播:《地缘政治与美国政治二季度展望》。
- 伊朗冲突接下来将如何演变？当前的暂时停火能持续多久？
- 特朗普的约束与承受阈值在哪里？
- 中期选举将如何影响美国的外交政策决策？
- 中东的地缘政治紧张局势是否可能进一步扩散？对其他地区有何影响？
- 持续的地缘政治风险和政策不确定性，对投资有何启示？
Webcast Replay
In this webcast, BCA Research Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Robert Timper, Jeremie Peloso and Artem Sakhbiev discussed the following:
- Oil: Temporary buffers are masking a looming oil deficit that could trigger a global recession.
- Inflation: The shock is stagflationary, but weaker labor markets limit second-round inflation risks.
- Policy: Central banks are likely to look through inflation short term, then pivot to growth concerns.
- FX: Terms-of-trade dynamics favor USD and commodity exporters over energy importers.
- Markets: Bonds offer asymmetric upside; equities and FX remain driven by energy exposure and policy repricing.
Webcast Replay
US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1
Noah and Jason discussed:
- The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
- The capex outlook and its implications
- Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
- Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
- What a US recession could mean for equities
- Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
- Sector positioning for 2026
Insight
Our GeoMacro strategists argue that prevailing market narratives around the Gulf conflict rest on three flawed assumptions. First, that the UAE’s role as a financial hub is at risk; second, that Iran can sustain a closure of the Strait of Hormuz; and third, that the conflict is primarily about press...
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Insight
European sentiment plunged in March, reflecting vulnerability to higher energy prices. The ZEW expectations index fell sharply to -8.5 from 39.4 at the Euro Area level and to -0.5 from 58.3 in Germany. German current conditions were better than estimates but remain deeply pessimistic at -62.9. The d...
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Insight
Our US Equity strategists dove into macro’s explanatory power in driving sector returns and fundamentals. Using principal component analysis, they show that growth, inflation, and rate risk together account for nearly three-quarters of sector return variation. Macro risks also influence f...
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Insight
Cross-asset correlations remain the clearest signal of how investors are pricing the energy shock. Risk assets rebounded late Monday after President Trump described the Iran war as “very complete, pretty much.” However, the outcome depends on Iran’s response, leadership cohesion, and willingness to ...
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Insight
Our Global Investment strategists argue that AI threatens the traditional profit engines of large technology firms despite boosting productivity. Tech companies have historically relied on economies of scale, network effects, and proprietary technologies, but AI may erode these advantages. Although ...
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Insight
US assets have underperformed year-to-date, but BCA views differ on the tactical versus 12-month outlook. Since the start of the year, US markets have lagged the rest of the world, largely driven by the sell-off in software and AI-related stocks. The next phase for US versus the rest of the world wa...
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