Countries In-Depth
Can Brazil Escape The Public Debt Trap?
The new fiscal framework will fail to prevent the rise of the public debt-to-GDP ratio as it relies on overly optimistic revenue growth. A rising public debt-to-GDP ratio will lead to a widening fiscal risk premium in Brazilian financial markets. We are making two new recommendations: downgrade Brazilian sovereign credit from neutral to underweight, and go long Brazilian CDS / short Mexican CDS.
BCA Research | Emerging Markets Strategy
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
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