Strategy Insight
How Would A Recession Impact 2024 Oil Prices?
In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to ~ $78/bbl in 2H24. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain oil and commodity exposures.
BCA Research | Commodity & Energy Strategy
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
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