Economy
News flash: Young urban professionals are not gasping under the weight of an impossible rent burden. Investors should not be led astray by lightly examined popular narratives.
June’s low CPI reading rules out a July rate hike, but September is still on the table.
The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelligence.
Our Global Investment strategists see the equity bull market entering its late stages and expect bonds to do well once growth slows. Lower oil prices and heavy AI capital spending should support the global economy through the rest of 2026, but our colleagues…
Our US Investment strategists argue that higher-than-expected interest rates are more likely to restrain consumption than support it. An idea gaining traction is that as rates rise, households collect more interest income and spend it, thus spurring…
The UK economy entered the latest energy shock with recessionary signals already flashing red. While the rise in energy prices is unlikely to rival the 2022 crisis, it could still have a disproportionate impact on growth as the economy was already weak.…
The June ISM Services survey was in line with consensus and reinforced the picture of a US economy that is neither overheating nor cooling significantly. The headline index ticked down to 54.0 from 54.5. The underlying picture was somewhat mixed, with new…
We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they might.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2026.
The June US employment report missed estimates, but still showed a labor market that remains healthy without overheating. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57k, slowing from a downwardly revised 129k in May. Two-month revisions removed 74k jobs, leaving the 3-month…