Strategy Report

It's Brexit, Stupid!

17 Jun 2016

by Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist, Developed Markets ex US & Head of Research Innovation

The Brexit vote is a coin toss. We introduce a simple model to estimate the effect of a "stay" or a "leave" vote on various currencies and assets. A "leave" vote could cause GBP/USD to fall to 1.32 or less, creating a tactical buying opportunity. Extreme GBP implied volatility suggests that selling vol is attractive. The Fed decreased its rate projections.

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BCA Research | Foreign Exchange Strategy

Helping guide portfolio managers, CIOs, and traders with actionable overlay strategies and profitable trading ideas. A bonus is insights for other asset classes, from a currency perspective.