Canada
Canada’s recent run of better data is unlikely to last, as leading indicators remain sluggish and financial conditions have tightened. Economic data have outperformed expectations, particularly recent jobs reports. However, Canada exhibits the same broad…
The July Canadian jobs report was strong, but leading indicators still point to a fading labor rebound and limited growth upside. Employment rose by 75.1k, accelerating from 18.2k in June, with gains roughly evenly split between full- and part-time positions.…
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, and favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, neutral on gold, constructive on copper, and very bullish on oil.
Canadian June inflation came in colder than estimates, reinforcing the case for fading CORRA pricing. Headline CPI ticked down to 2.8% y/y, within the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. The BoC’s preferred core measures also cooled, with median down to…
The Bank of Canada held rates, reinforcing its intention to stay on hold in the near term. The BoC kept rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting, as expected. It also removed references to both cuts and hikes from its press release, reinforcing its…
The June Canadian employment report was marginally better than estimates, but the broader labor backdrop remains subdued. Employment rose by 18.2k, slowing from 87.8k in May. Job growth was however concentrated almost entirely in part-time and temporary…
The USD/CAD is oversold but faces unique political risk going into the fall. The CAD is one of the worst-performing G10 currencies year-to-date, despite a 30% increase in oil prices over the same time frame. Widening real interest rate…
The Bank of Canada’s Q2 Business Outlook Survey pointed to a fragile economy, supporting the case for fading hikes priced into the CORRA curve. While the BOS indicator was roughly unchanged at -0.4, the report’s underlying details showed broad deterioration…
Canadian May inflation was hotter than estimates, but the underlying inflation picture remains much more muted. Headline CPI rose to 3.2% from 2.8%, moving above the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. The increase, however, was driven by energy, which…
The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged and still sees two-sided risks around the inflation outlook. The policy rate was left at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. At 2.25%, it remains at the bottom of the BoC’s estimated…