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Modeling The Midterms, 2026

by Yushu Ma, Strategist   Junfei Guo, Research Analyst  

Democrats are likely to win big in this year's midterm elections. Our new quant model still slightly favors Republicans for the Senate, but we expect the oil shock to deliver surprise Democratic victories.

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BCA Research | US Political Strategy

A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.

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