Our Global Investment strategists believe the US economy is in a more precarious position than investors realize. A slowdown in growth could raise unemployment, while stronger activity may heighten inflation worries. The…
The Magnificent 7 have a leg up on AI investments over the rest of the market. Although the future impact of AI on productivity and profits is still debated, current tech stocks valuations reflect great optimism that AI indeed will…
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we…
Trump's policies aim to support domestic producers and will be pro-growth and inflationary, at least initially. This environment is supportive of equities. Earnings will likely be strong, but elevated valuations make equities prone…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, CAPEX does not appear to be especially broad-based even among the largest companies in the US. The enclosed chart presents a bottom-up estimate of CAPEX as…
Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the…
In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…