In Section I, Doug underscores that the US labor market remains weak, crimping the outlook for disposable income growth. It is too soon to decisively bet against the bull market, but downside risks remain quite elevated. In Section…
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the…
Airlines have staged an impressive recovery this year, exceeding all expectations. While companies are optimistic, we are cautious. Just as pent-up demand for travel will fade, headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will…
In this week’s report “Adaptive Expectations: Revisiting Our Views”, we concluded that the S&P 500 is unlikely to find a bottom until inflation turns and monetary conditions stabilize, and US equities will follow a…
Following another sell-off, S&P airlines have been regaining some altitude of late despite US Covid cases and hospitalizations rising. The surge in Omicron infections appears to be priced in. Airlines have underperformed S…
Overweight We have been overweight the niche (0.33% of the S&P 500) airlines sector going into the pandemic, and while it has been slow to recover, there is little doubt that soon airline stocks will reclaim their pre-…