Highlights US crude oil output will continue its sharp recovery before leveling off by mid-2022, in our latest forecast (Chart of the Week). The recovery in US production is led by higher Permian shale-oil production, which is quietly…
Highlights The baht will depreciate further, given the state of the economy and external accounts. Domestic demand was already relapsing, even before the latest surge in COVID-19 cases. Now, the recovery will be delayed more. The…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy & Global Asset Allocation services, adding a simple 50-50 Chinese stock-bond portfolio may boost the return/risk profile of global multi-asset portfolios. Chinese…
Singapore is a small open economy that is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles. The country’s exports have historically been a good leading indicator of global economic activity. This…
Chinese retail sales, industrial production, and fixed assets investment data for July disappointed. Retail sales slowed to 8.5% y/y in July from 12.1%, versus expectations of 10.9%. Similarly, industrial production decelerated…
Highlights The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan is symbolic – the US is conducting a strategic pivot to Asia Pacific to confront China. US-Iran negotiations are the linchpin of this pivot. If they fail, war risk will…
On Friday, the Baltic Dry Index jumped to an 11-year high on the back of the partial closure of the world’s third busiest port. The shutdown of China’s Ningbo-Zhoushan port comes as Beijing battles a resurgence in COVID-19…
Highlights Going into the new crop year, we expect the course of the broad trade-weighted USD to dictate the path taken by grain and bean prices (Chart of the Week). Higher corn stocks in the coming crop year, flat wheat stocks and…