BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service presents three scenarios of how China’s equity market and policies will likely evolve. In the first scenario (their baseline case) the economy would weaken, but would not cross…
Highlights Last week’s market gyrations do not mark the end of China’s structural reforms. The country’s macro policy setting has shifted to allow a higher tolerance for short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain…
Chinese PMIs indicate that economic activity continues to slow. The Caixin PMI fell 1 point to 50.3 in July, below the anticipated 51.0. Similarly, the NBS manufacturing index eased to 50.4, disappointing expectations of a 0.1…
China is a large net importer of oil and rising crude prices act as a significant drag on this economy, at least compared to other emerging markets. Consequently, the relative performance of Chinese equities has tracked with a…
Highlights Globalization is recovering to its pre-pandemic trajectory. But it will fail to live up to potential, as the “hyper-globalization” trends of the 1990s are long gone. China was the biggest winner of hyper-…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that dedicated Asian/EM fixed-income investors should continue to overweight Malaysia in both EM local currency and sovereign bond portfolios. First, statutory…
Highlights Recent progress on the path to a post-pandemic state and the return to pre-COVID economic conditions has been mixed. The share of vaccinated individuals continues to rise globally, and the number of confirmed UK cases has…
Highlights The Malaysian economy is struggling. The latest surge in Covid-19 cases will further hamper the recovery. Shrinking employment and household incomes are accentuating deflationary forces. Fiscal support will be elusive…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service argues that the Chinese bond market is vulnerable to a near-term reassessment of policy and growth. The RRR cut exacerbated China’s nascent bond market rally as…
Highlights China’s broad equity market performance since the PBoC cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is consistent with our view. While the central bank’s policy tone remains dovish, a single reduction in the RRR rate…