Highlights The Indian rupee is about 7% cheaper than its fair value versus the US dollar. Expanding capital expenditures will boost India’s productivity and raise returns on capital. That will attract higher capital inflows,…
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean exports are sending a warning about the state of Asia’s manufacturing cycle. Korean exports in the first 20 days of June slowed to 29.5% y/y from 53.3%. Similarly, Taiwan’s…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the macro and geopolitical outlook is darkening for China’s communist party. The “East Asian miracle” phase of Chinese growth has ended.…
Singapore trade data is flagging a small warning about the state of the global manufacturing cycle. The country’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) declined 0.1% m/m in May, disappointing expectations of a 4.5% m/m increase.…
Highlights Oil demand expectations remain high. Realized demand continues to disappoint. This means OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy – i.e., keeping the level of supply below demand – will continue to dictate…
The May economic data confirm that China’s domestic demand recovery has passed its peak strength. Most of the macro indicators released yesterday are below the consensus and growing at a slower rate (on both a year-on-year…
Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss the outlook for China’s economy and financial markets, a year into policy normalization. The webcasts will be held…
On a month-on-month basis, Chinese credit was relatively stable in May. Aggregate financing was flat at CNY 1.92 trillion versus CNY 1.85 trillion in April. Similarly, CNY 1.5 trillion worth of new yuan loans were extended,…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is trickling back into financial markets. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse collapsed again. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is ticking back up after the sharp drop from 2020. All of our…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service recommends that investors overweight the KOSPI within an EM equity portfolio. Korean share prices have been moving sideways in recent months. Margin loans for security…