Total Social Financing, a broad measure of Chinese credit growth, has slowed from its peak last October. The current pace of credit growth is broadly in line with nominal GDP growth. The authorities have made it clear that they…
On Monday, the PBoC raised the reserve requirement ratio for Chinese banks’ foreign exchange deposits to 7% from 5% beginning June 15. The change aims to reduce foreign currency liquidity and in the process curb the CNY…
Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This…
After a period of weakness in the first quarter, RMB strength has been reaffirmed. USD/CNY peaked at the end of March and is down more than 2.5% since then. Broad-based US dollar weakness explains some of the CNY’s recent…
In a recent report on Indonesia, our Emerging Markets Strategy team pointed out a structural shift in the Indonesian USD bond market. Indonesian sovereign USD bonds are now considered among the safest within the EM universe.…
BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service believes that China's jawboning of participants in metals markets raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over…
The Seventh National Population Census reinforced the magnitude of China’s demographic challenge. The Census showed three meaningful shifts in China’s demographics in the past decade: 1. China is getting old before…
Highlights The Seventh National Population Census highlights the seriousness of China’s demographic deterioration; apart from a shrinking working-age population, the nation’s fertility and birth rates have dropped…
Highlights The number one risk to our upbeat view on European economic activity and assets is a Chinese economic slowdown. The second most important risk to our view is a potential deterioration in the global credit impulse, even…