Highlights Indonesian domestic demand is struggling amid tight policy setting. Exports will weaken too, as the Chinese money and credit impulses have rolled over. Slowing Chinese impulses are negative for the rupiah as well. An…
Highlights Global oil markets will remain balanced this year with OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy geared toward maintaining the level of supply just below demand. This will keep inventories on a downward trajectory,…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service recommends investors upgrade their allocation to the MSCI Hong Kong (Special Administrative Region) equity index from underweight to neutral within Asian, global and EM…
Highlights Based on the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, the MSCI Hong Kong equity index appears very cheap, both in absolute terms and relative to the EM index. We recommend investors upgrade their allocation to the MSCI Hong Kong…
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service believes that global equities, commodities, and “China plays” are at risk of a substantial correction as a result of China’s policy tightening. China’s…
After rallying more than 100% since mid-March 2020, Taiwanese equities peaked at the end of April, and are down 11% since then – bringing the index into correction territory. Last week’s global tech selloff as…
Investment and retail sales data confirm that consumer demand remains the weakest link in China’s economic recovery. While the data generally surprised to the downside, the disappointment was most pronounced in retail sales…
Highlights Global stocks are very vulnerable to a correction. But cyclically the Fed is committed to an inflation overshoot and the global economy is recovering. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse fell sharply, which leaves global…
Highlights Over the 2021-22 period, renewable capacity will account for 90% of global electricity-generation additions, per the IEA's latest forecast. This will follow the 45% surge (y/y) in renewable generation capacity added last…
EM stocks, including Chinese equities, tend to perform well during periods of stronger global growth, rising commodity prices and a weaker US dollar. However, a falling dollar index since April has failed to boost Chinese…