Highlights Developed economies continue to transition towards a post-pandemic state. Europe has further to go, but it is lagging the US at a constant rate and is thus merely delayed – not on a different path. This ongoing…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that an underweight position in Chinese stocks is warranted for the next six months. Historically, China’s credit formation has consistently led economic…
China's H-share market lagged its A-share counterpart in most of 2019 and 2020. While A shares benefited more directly from China’s domestic liquidity and monetary easing in the past two years, H-shares were hammered by…
Highlights Clients countered our opinion that China’s economy has reached its cyclical peak. However, we have already incorporated the supporting facts into our analysis so they will not alter our cyclical outlook for the economy…
Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects…
Highlights Surging Covid-19 cases to unprecedented levels have unsettled India’s equity and currency markets. Worryingly, the number of new cases in India might stay exceptionally high for a while due to several potential…
South Korea’s exports suggest that the global trade recovery is intact. Exports surged 45.4% y/y for the first 20 days in April following a 12.5% y/y increase in March. On an average working day basis, export increased by…
China’s GDP release shows the economy growing by a colossal 18.3% y/y in Q1. However, this figure is highly distorted by the pandemic-induced economic collapse last year. Instead, the quarter-on-quarter comparison reveals a…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is rising once again after a big drop-off in risk during the pandemic and snapback. The Biden administration faces three critical foreign policy tests: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran.…
Highlights Stronger global growth in the wake of continued and expected fiscal and monetary stimulus, and progress against COVID-19 are boosting oil demand assumptions by the major data suppliers for this year. We lifted our…