Highlights Massive fiscal deficits and high borrowing costs have led the government into a debt trap: interest payments alone cost the exchequer nearly half its revenues. Pursuing a tight fiscal and monetary policy now reduces the…
Highlights The Biden administration is combining Trumpian nationalism with a renewed push for US innovation in a major infrastructure bill that is highly likely to become law. Populism and Great Power struggle with China and Russia are…
Highlights The Biden Administration's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan rolled out yesterday will, at the margin, boost global demand for energy and base metals more than expected later this year and next. Global GDP growth…
China’s official PMIs moved higher in March, pointing to an expansion in economic activity following three consecutive months of decline. The Manufacturing PMI inched up to 51.9 from 50.6, beating expectations by 0.7 points…
Highlights Extremely accommodative fiscal policy and a rapid pace of vaccination puts the US on track to close its output gap by the end of the year. The situation is different in Europe, and the euro area economy will likely continue…
The US saw its share of the global economic decline since the accession of China to the WTO in 2001. This decline coincided with domestic ills like inequality and weak wage growth to elicit a domestic populist response, marked by…
Chinese industrial profits surged 178.9% y/y in the first two months of the year, marking a significant acceleration from December’s 20.1% y/y pace. However, investors should be careful not to interpret this as a sign of…
Highlights Global manufacturing activity will soon peak due to growing costs and China’s policy tightening. This process will allow the dollar’s rebound to continue. EUR/USD’s correction will run further. This…
Highlights Biden’s policy on China is hawkish so far, as expected, but temporary improvement is possible. We are cyclically bearish on the dollar but are taking a neutral tactical stance as the greenback’s bounce could go…
Chinese stocks peaked in mid-February, with the selloff extending well through March. Market participants fear that escalating US Treasury yields will have a sustained negative impact on Chinese risk assets. And while BCA…