According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s brand, legacy, and populist movement are based on the popular demand for a more hawkish US policy on trade and immigration. China has been the chief…
Chinese exports in USD terms missed expectations in July, growing by 7.0% y/y, down from 8.6% in June. Conversely, imports rebounded smartly from a 2.3% contraction, rising by 7.2% in July and upending expectations of 3.2%.…
Industrial metals were one of the worst performing asset classes last month. Have prices declined enough to make them an attractive investment? The outlook for industrial commodity prices is bearish over a 12-month horizon…
China's cyclical and structural headwinds will likely undermine Beijing’s initiative to accelerate urban migration over the next five years.
We have previously highlighted that an upside surprise in China’s fiscal stimulus as well as an AI-triggered jump in US productivity could potentially prolong the expansion, and constitute two key risks to our recession…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, robust iron ore imports are sending a false signal about steel demand. Instead, these supplies are being used to restock inventories. By the end of…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.
China’s NBS manufacturing PMI declined further in July, from 49.5 to 49.4, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. New orders and new export orders underscored continued weakness in both domestic and foreign…
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.