Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through June. The stock of outstanding bank loans grew by 8.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since records began in 2003.…
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising…
As highlighted in Wednesday’s edition of BCA Live & Unfiltered, the Chinese economy and its financial markets face several daunting challenges. Its demographic outlook is unfavorable, with a low birthrate stifling…
Our colleagues from the Emerging Markets Strategy team argue that investors should brace for a significant correction in Indian stocks in the coming months. They posit that the pillar of Indian corporations' sustained profit…
The Chinese currency has been under considerable depreciation pressure due to capital outflows. Additionally, the economy is grappling with debt deflation and a balance sheet recession, conditions that typically call for lower…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, onshore bonds are vulnerable to an investor sentiment reversal. Chinese 10-year government bond yields will likely trend lower to below 2% over the next 12…
The PBoC appears increasingly uncomfortable with the rapid decline in the Chinese government bond yields. While the PBoC will succeed in temporarily curbing investors’ enthusiasm for bonds, the central bank will be unwilling to raise…
Chinese manufacturing PMIs remained mostly stable in June. The Caixin PMI ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.8 while the NBS measure remained at 49.5. Both leading gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity are thus sending seemingly…
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.