Chinese economic data releases painted a mixed picture of domestic conditions on Tuesday. Chinese real GDP growth accelerated from 5.2% y/y to 5.3% y/y in Q1 2024, beating expectations of 4.8% and suggesting that economic…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?
Chinese trade and credit data delivered a negative surprise for March. On the trade front, the 7.5% y/y drop in exports came in below expectations of a 1.9% y/y decline following four consecutive months of growth. While the jump…
Copper markets are fast approaching a price breakout, as Chinese smelters scramble to find ore to meet increasing refined-copper demand in the wake of a global manufacturing rebound. We are holding fast to our expectation of $4.50/lb…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment will likely slow from a nominal 9% last year to about 6% this year. Funding constraints will limit…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.
The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.
Investors around Europe and North America are concerned that the stock market is increasingly overbought and vulnerable to exogenous risks. We agree and have good reasons to fear that festering geopolitical risks and the US election…