The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local…
On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time…
China’s CSI 300 equity index closed at its lowest level since early 2019 on Tuesday following news that Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s credit rating from stable to negative. The report cited the…
Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership.…
The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high…
Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service recommends overweighting Korea within an EM equity portfolio. Korean equity valuations are neutral in absolute and relative terms. Hence, other factors rather than…
The recent increase in Korean exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle rebound within a cyclical downtrend. Korea’s households and enterprises are among the most indebted globally, and their debt service ratio is among the highest…
A cyclical recovery in China’s economy is still not imminent. The PBoC has tightened interbank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate since late August. This does not bode well for the real economy. The uptick in onshore bond…