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Asia

China's Property Market Adjustment Is Not Over
According to BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service, the property market has not cleared. Property market indicators suggest that China's real estate sector is still struggling to stabilize. Home sales and starts have entered their third year of…
Daily Insights
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China: Not Out Of The Woods

China’s economic growth will stagnate, at best, rather than revive. Lower valuations of Chinese equities are justified, and share prices have more downside. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
Chinese Stocks Weaken Despite Upside Economic Data Surprises
China's CSI 300 equity index fell below its March 2020 pandemic low on Monday, bringing its loss since the February 2021 peak to -40%. Similarly, BCA Research's market-based China growth indicator – a broader measure of the performance of Chinese financial…
Daily Insights
Chinese Construction: Implications For Metals
Earlier this year we highlighted that China's property market dynamics pose a greater risk to the price of steel vis-à-vis copper. This view was based on the expectation that Chinese policymakers will direct financing towards the completion of unfinished and…
Daily Insights
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Quantum Uncertainty Keeps Oil Forecast Unch

Despite higher uncertainty, our Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at just over $101/bbl for 4Q23 and $118/bbl for next year. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF, and commodity exposure via the COMT ETF. We also remain long $100 Dec24 Brent calls and long 1Q24 Brent futures vs. short 1Q25 Brent futures in anticipation of stronger backwardation.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
Is China's Economy Healing?
Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q – also ahead of anticipations of 0.9% q/q.…
Daily Insights
Singapore NODX: The Contraction Eases
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in Singapore's non-oil domestic…
Daily Insights
Chinese Credit: Less Than Meets The Eye
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and expectations of CNY 3.7 trillion. However,…
Daily Insights
Chinese Export Contraction Eases Amid Surging Vehicle Sales
On the surface, the slower pace of contraction in Chinese exports in September is a positive signal for global trade. The 6.2% y/y drop in the dollar value of Chinese exports was not as bad as the 8% y/y decline anticipated or the 8.8% y/y decline in August. …
Daily Insights
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Chinese Automakers: Surging Exports, Mediocre Domestic Sales

Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones.

China Investment Strategy

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