Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial…
India’s intake of industrial commodities is 10-to-20 times as small as China’s. Capital goods are five times as small. Hence, India is not in a position to offset any decline in Chinese demand for these commodities and goods.
The Caixin and NBS PMIs sent mixed signals about Chinese economic conditions in September. The NBS results surprised to the upside on the back of slightly greater-than-anticipated increases in both the manufacturing (+0.5 to…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
The unexpected increase in Chinese industrial profits in August sent a positive signal about the economy. Industrial profits posted its first year-over-year increase since the second half of last year, surging by 17.2% y/y…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service estimates that China’s oil demand growth will decline from 12% year-on-year in the past eight months to a still robust 4%-6% in the next six-to-nine months. China…
US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.
We continue to expect Brent crude to trade just above $101/bbl in 4Q23, and to average $118/bbl in 2024. Higher volatility looms. We expect Russia will cut oil production next year as part of a concerted effort to undermine Biden’s…
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders…