Deflation prevails in China’s economy. Marginal interest rate cuts will be insufficient to boost growth as the economy is experiencing debt deflation and might be entering a liquidity trap. There will likely be more economic…
Chinese authorities have recently ratcheted up support for the currency. The PBoC continues to set its daily yuan fixing at a stronger-than-expected rate, with the yuan midpoint (a reference for trading that caps the range…
Chinese banks surprised markets with a more modest-than-anticipated rate cut on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.45% – slightly above expectations of a bigger cut to 3.40%.…
Indian stocks have gone up this year even as the broader EM markets have been falling. How long can Indian markets continue to rise?
Before doctors prescribe treatments to a patient, they first make a diagnosis. The success of the treatment is contingent upon the accuracy of the diagnosis. The same is true for a country’s economy. Many commentators…
Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team expects a further decline in Indian stocks. Foreign equity inflows have been instrumental in the recent rally, but they will likely reverse in the coming months as risk-off sentiments pervade…
2023 is shaping up as a record-breaking year for global oil demand, according to our colleagues BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES). By year end, they expect the world will be consuming a record 103.5mm b/d, an…
The conventional wisdom is that China’s economy is overly indebted and too reliant on residential construction and exports as drivers of growth. While there is much truth to these claims, they ignore the underlying…