Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.
The June NBS PMI data revealed that growth conditions have deteriorated on the margin. The new orders and exports for overall manufacturing as well as for services have not improved and remain below 50. In addition, the import…
In a recently published report, our China Investment Strategy team revisited the issue of a liquidity trap in China. A liquidity trap is a condition that occurs when lower borrowing costs are unable to boost credit demand and…
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil producers stand the most to gain following the failed coup against the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The biggest beneficiaries will be the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA…
In Section I, we reiterate why a soft economic landing remains improbable in the US. Some reasonable estimates of the level of excess savings point to their depletion in a year’s time, but other estimates indicate a much earlier end…
The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening.…
China’s economic and diplomatic interests in the GCC region will expand, as will its military presence. Whether or not this stabilizes the region is yet to be determined, particularly if tensions in the South China Sea and other…
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended an underweight stance for Indonesian equities in EM portfolios. The team is also bearish on the rupiah. An unprecedented trade surplus recently gave Indonesia…
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team posited that the bear market in Malaysian stocks will be prolonged. Disinflationary forces have taken hold of the Malaysian economy: money supply has plunged, bond yields…