Asia
Symptoms of a liquidity trap for Chinese households are appearing. Our proprietary indicators for the marginal propensity to spend among households and enterprises continue falling. There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. Authorities will be slow to introduce large stimulus. Hence, China-related financial markets are set to fall further.
Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.
The CCP is poised to roll out a re-boot of China’s economy that will focus on its comparative advantage in the processing of base metals – particularly copper – and the export of metals-intensive products like EVs. The re-boot will emphasize deeper policy coordination to revive construction, manufacturing, exports and renewed efforts to attract and retain FDI. This will be bullish for commodities – particularly conventional energy and metals – as funding flows to SOEs.
