We expect the CCP to pivot toward more fiscal stimulus – and less credit stimulus – this year, which will put a bid under energy and metals prices. On the back of this view, at tonight’s close we are getting long 4Q23 Brent futures…
In Section I, we review the three possible economic scenarios over the coming year, and underscore that the “soft landing” scenario remains improbable. A “no landing” scenario could occur, but it would ultimately lead back to the…
China’s recovery is losing steam. Its industrial segments will disappoint, while the pace of consumer spending will be moderate. Overall, the Chinese economic recovery will underwhelm in the months ahead. Odds are that interest rate…
Recent Asian trade data do not provide any optimism that the global manufacturing slump is nearing its end. South Korean exports collapsed by 16.1% y/y in the first 20 days of May. While the decline was broad-based, sales to…
EM oil demand remains resilient and will continue to be propelled by global growth this year. Supply management by OPEC 2.0 and production discipline outside the coalition will be maintained, forcing inventories lower. Recent price…
Singapore’s trade numbers continue to send a warning for the global economy. The year-on-year pace of decline in non-oil domestic exports deepened in April after slowing in the prior two months. Importantly, the weakness…
The latest Chinese economic data releases for April signal a disappointing domestic recovery. Weak economic conditions during the Shanghai lockdown last April created a low base effect which boosted the annual comparison.…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay underweight Indonesian equities within Emerging Market and Emerging Asian equity portfolios. Unprecedented export earnings have pushed…