The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies…
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the recovery in China’s economy (other than the consumer sector) to underwhelm. A recent conversation with a one of China’s most prominent and…
An unprecedented trade surplus has given Indonesia a rare opportunity to transition into a lower real rates regime. The sustainability of Indonesian stocks outperformance is contingent upon whether the authorities can do so.
This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important…
China’s trade release shows exports grew for the second consecutive month in April. However, base effects are distorting the signal. In particular, the two-month-long Shanghai lockdown that started at the end of March 2022…
The Indian equity market has fallen by about 15% from its peak last year. Nevertheless, our Emerging Markets Strategists expect a further decline as both drivers of stock prices – EPS growth and multiples – remain…
Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the late April meeting of China’s Politburo suggests that the Chinese government will maintain the accommodative macroeconomic policies outlined in March.…
China’s reopening, combined with a slew of pro-consumption policy stimuli, will likely boost household consumption by 10% in nominal terms in 2023 from a year ago. Some of the hardest hit service sectors during the pandemic will…