Chinese trade data delivered a strong positive surprise on Thursday. Exports jumped by 14.8% y/y in USD terms in March following five consecutive months of contraction and beating expectations of a 7.1% y/y decline. In particular…
There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of…
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…
Data released on Tuesday painted a mixed picture of the Chinese economy. On the one hand, Chinese credit growth accelerated and beat consensus estimates. Total social financing jumped by CNY 5.38 trillion in March, exceeding…
Is there a lot of cash on the sidelines ready to be deployed? Would the US recession not be bearish for the US dollar and help EM like it did in the early 2000s? Why can the US investment playbook of the past 15-25 years not be used…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
According to our Emerging Markets Strategy service, Asian exports will continue contracting at a double-digit rate warranting a cautious stance on emerging Asian equity markets. The New Orders component of Asian Manufacturing…
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…