In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…
CCP officials are discussing policy options for breaking out of a deepening liquidity trap. Anything policymakers come up with will be additive to existing spending and to the multi-trillion-dollar fiscal-stimulus packages being…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a diverging corporate profit cycle and cheaper valuations should support a cyclical outperformance in Chinese onshore stocks versus global equities. In the…
Chinese onshore stocks are attractive on a risk-reward basis relative to their global counterparts. If the global equity bear market continues, our bias is that Chinese onshore stock prices will also drop, but they will likely fall…
Profits of Chinese industrial firms dropped by 22.9% y/y in the first two months of 2023, extending and deepening the contraction that began in July. Notably, the weakness has been particularly pronounced across the manufacturing…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects both iron ore and steel prices to drop by 15%-20% from their current levels and they recommend that investors short stocks for global steelmakers and global mining…
The deep contraction in South Korean exports corroborates the signal from other Asian trade data that global demand for manufactured goods remains weak. Exports dropped by 17.4% y/y in the first 20 days of March, marking the…
Asian trade data continue to send a negative signal for the global manufacturing cycle. Taiwanese export orders contracted for the sixth consecutive month in February, declining by 18.3% y/y. The weakness remains broad-based…