BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that China’s consumption growth will rebound strongly this year following an extremely dismal performance in 2022. China’s post-pandemic re-opening…
Pent-up demand for consumer goods and services will boost Chinese household spending this year. Beyond the next 12 to 18 months, however, structural forces will likely drive Chinese household consumption growth lower than in the pre…
Asian trade data continue to highlight that global demand for goods remains weak. South Korean exports in the first 20 days of February fell 2.3% y/y – marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Although the…
In a recent insight, we highlighted that Chinese housing construction is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound. Although Beijing has rolled out easing measures to stimulate the ailing property market, our China Investment…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports continue to send a bleak signal about global demand. They fell by 25% y/y in January, registering the fourth consecutive annual decline. The weakness was broad-based across all of the…
The latest house price data indicate that the worst is over for China’s housing market. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities were broadly unchanged on a month-on-month basis in January.…
Investor sentiment on China and EM has become bullish. Meanwhile, the reflation plays have begun fraying on the edges. Cracks always appear first in the most sensitive reflation plays and then spread to the core. The narratives of…
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
Chinese money and credit data were stronger than expected in January. The RMB 5.98 trillion surge in total social financing is significantly above December’s RMB 1.31 trillion increase and beat expectations of a RMB 5.40…
Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…