It is not unusual for a period of rebounding share prices to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and a growth scare. Initially, stocks rally on falling inflation and prospects of lower interest rates. Then, worries about…
Chinese investable stocks have benefited more from Beijing’s reopening plans and pro-growth policy pivot than their onshore peers. The former’s 55% gain in USD terms since its October 31 bottom is more than double the…
China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil…
Asian currencies have strengthened in recent months, with the ADXY index up 7.8% since the beginning of November. These gains reflect broad-based dollar weakness: the DXY Index has fallen 8.2% over this period. Dollar dynamics…
Chinese GDP growth slowed sharply from 8.4% in 2021 to 3.0% in 2022. Moreover, the economy remained weak in Q4, with GDP growth softening from 3.9% q/q in Q3 to 0.0% q/q (from 3.9% y/y to 2.9% y/y). However, the deterioration in…
China's reopening is much more positive for the Chinese economy than it is for the rest of the world, as it will boost its domestic service sector activity and consumer spending much more than the industrial economy. A slowdown in…
Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.
In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?