Asia
China’s property price declines are accelerating. The contraction in new home prices in Chinese 70 large and medium-sized cities widened to 1.6% y/y in October, compared with 1.5% y/y in September. Meanwhile, 70-city secondary home prices shrunk further by…
Indonesian equities have outperformed their EM peers since mid-2021, returning 30% in local currency terms (20% in USD terms). However, these relative gains are likely unsustainable. Our Emerging Markets strategists point out that the outperformance was…
China is on the verge of experiencing a full range of deflation. Poor domestic demand will likely continue into 1H 2023 amid the ailing housing market, subdued private-sector sentiment and the zero-Covid policy, warranting a cautious stance on Chinese equities.
Unlike other hydrocarbon economies in the Middle-East, UAE stocks are also leveraged to global growth conditions and interest rate dynamics, given the prevalence of non-oil plays and interest rate-sensitive sectors. The confluence of these three forces has…
Taiwanese export orders in USD terms contracted by 6.3% y/y in October, down from a 3.1% decline in the previous month and short of expectations of a milder decrease. Exports to China and Hong Kong drove the bulk of the contraction, which was broad-based…
Despite Saudi Arabian stocks having outperformed their EM peers over the past couple of years, our Emerging Markets strategists argue that this bourse is due for a breather. Saudi fiscal policy is experiencing a major shift. In a departure from past…
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are sending a warning about global demand. They declined by 5.6% y/y in October, marking the first annual contraction since November 2020. In particular, non-oil exports to China, the EU, and Emerging Markets are…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that although Chinese equity valuations are cheap, the breakdown in share prices below their long-term technical supports merits a vigilant stance. One of the signposts the team is monitoring to…
The conditions for a sustainable rally in Chinese stocks have not been met. In this report we discuss the four signposts which we will closely monitor to gauge when it will be warranted to upgrade our stance on Chinese equities both in absolute terms and relative to the global stock benchmark.
Key indicators of Chinese domestic economic activity in October generated negative surprises. Retail sales contracted by 0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of a growth slowdown from 2.5% to 0.7%. Similarly, industrial production and fixed assets investment…