Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Executive Summary Liquidity Will Shrink Further In Hong Kong The HKD is facing its most critical test in several decades. While the peg is likely to survive (Feature Chart), the economic costs for Hong Kong SAR will be far…
Strong exports have historically benefitted Malaysia’s small, open economy, and in turn, its stock market. However, in a sharp departure from past trends, Malaysian stocks are weakening despite a massive trade bonanza.…
Executive Summary Profits Collapsed As Sliding Capex Decimated Manufacturing Competitiveness Malaysian stocks’ continued weakness despite the country’s surging trade surplus is symptomatic of a structural…
China’s aggregate financing in August tripled to a larger-than-expected CNY 2.43 tr, following a CNY 0.76 tr in July and beating expectations of CNY 2.08 tr. New bank loans doubled, reaching CNY 1.25 tr from CNY 0.68 tr,…
Chinese imports and exports significantly missed expectations in August. Exports grew by 7.1% y/y in US dollar terms, down from 18.0% y/y and largely below the 13.0% y/y anticipated. Imports rose 0.3% y/y in August, down from…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that the conditions do not seem to be met for a drastic change in Beijing’s dynamic zero-Covid strategy. China’s transition from zero tolerance to an…
Executive Summary A Structural Downshift In China’s Real Estate Investment Growth The Politburo has set a date for the much-anticipated 20th Communist Party Congress at which President Xi will most likely secure his third…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service continues to hold a bearish view on the share prices of both onshore and offshore Chinese property developers in absolute terms and relative to China’s overall equity…